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Black Friday Smart Home Predictions 2020

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Amazon Prime Day came and went, but the 2020 holiday shopping season is only just getting warmed up. 

With Amazon’s 48-hour deal extravaganza behind us, we’re turning our attention to the season’s next highly anticipated shopping event: Black Friday 2020. And now, armed with lessons gleaned from Amazon Prime Day 2020, we can make more accurate predictions about Black Friday sales — particularly when it comes to deals on smart home devices. 

As we noted in our recent Black Friday predictions post, Black Friday prices often mirror Prime Day deals, especially in the smart home category. After analyzing prices from the most recent Prime Day in addition to past Black Friday sales and current market trends, here are our predictions for Black Friday smart home deals: 

2020 will be a big year for smart home devices  

With shoppers spending more time at home, the 2020 holiday season is likely to be a big year for home essentials. These days, “home essentials” has come to mean more than just blenders, microwaves and vacuums. The category is expanding to include smart home devices, as more consumers come to view products like smart speakers and security systems as practical technologies rather than futuristic luxuries. 

Tighter shopping budgets + fiercer competition = bigger savings 

However, with tighter shopping budgets this year, many consumers may be more reluctant to splurge on pricey electronics. In an effort to draw deal hunters away from competitors, retailers like Amazon and Google may slash smart home prices to historic lows. These brands are likely to be less concerned with making money on each smart home sale and more interested in locking shoppers into their smart ecosystem of devices and services. 

But you better act quickly…

During previous Black Friday sales, we saw top electronic deals sell out within seconds of being released. Frequently featured as doorbusters, smart home tech, tablets and TVs are often the first to run into inventory issues. 

Pricing predictions for popular smart devices 

During 2020 Black Friday sales, you can expect to find mini speakers for under $20 and standard speakers for under $50. For higher-end speakers and smart screens, look for savings of anywhere from $50 to $100 off. 

We’ll take a closer look at predicted prices for 2020’s top smart home devices below.

Echo Gen. 4

  • Predicted price: $60 ($40 off) 
  • Where to shop: Amazon 

Amazon is set to release the next generation of Echo devices at the end of October. 

Last fall, the online retailer released its latest model, the Echo Gen. 3, at a starting price of $100. During its 2019 Black Friday sale, Amazon cut the Gen. 3’s price down by 40% and ran the deal for about a week. If Amazon follows this trend again during Black Friday 2020, we’ll see a $40 reduction off the $99.99 starting price of the new Echo Gen. 4. 

Echo Dot Gen. 3

  • Predicted price: $18.99 ($31 off) 
  • Where to shop: Amazon

During Prime Day 2020, Amazon offered the Echo Dot Gen. 3 at $18.99, the lowest price we’ve seen for this model (it was featured on Prime Day and Black Friday for $22). We expect Amazon to match, if not top, its Prime Day discount during Black Friday sales. 

Echo Show devices 

  • Predicted price: $44.99-$149.99 (up to $80 off) 
  • Where to shop: Amazon

This Prime Day, Amazon took up as much as $80 off Echo Show devices. If they stick with this strategy during Black Friday sales, you can expect to see the Echo Show for $44.99, Echo Show 8 for $64.99 and Echo Show (2nd Gen.) for $149.99.

Google Nest devices 

Last Black Friday, Best Buy, Walmart and Target offered the Google Nest Hub Smart Display for $79 each ($20 off). Kohl’s also ran a deal on Google Nest Hub, offering one display for $79 plus $15 in Kohl’s Cash. 

The best deal on Google Nest Hub during last year’s Black Friday sale came from Best Buy (though it was only available to shoppers who signed up for the free My Best Buy program).  The tech retailer released a two-pack of Google Nest Hub smart displays for $139.99, which put each display at $70 apiece.

This year, we predict even steeper discounts on Google Nest Hub, with Best Buy, Walmart and Target expected to offer the smart display up for as low as $49.99. 

When you’re shopping at these retailers on Black Friday, other deals to keep an eye out for include the Google Nest Mini (formerly Google Home Mini) for $19 ($30 off) and Google Nest Hub Max for $150 ($70 off). Look for the Google Nest Learning thermostat for $179 ($70 off) at Kohl’s, where you’re likely to also receive credit in the form of Kohl’s Cash with your purchase. 

Ring Video Doorbells

We’re expecting Amazon to follow a similar pattern as it did on Prime Day, and offer the Ring Video Doorbell for $69.99 ($30 off) and the Ring Video Doorbell Pro for $169.99 ($79 off). We’re also keeping an eye out for bundle deals between Ring Video Doorbell and Echo products, which we saw on both Prime Day 2020 and Black Friday 2019. 

In addition to deals from Amazon, you should check out Target and Best Buy for Ring Video Doorbell sales. Last Black Friday, they both offered the Ring Video Doorbell 2 for $129.99. 

Apple HomePod and HomePod Mini

  • Predicted price: $199 ($100 off)
  • Where to shop: Best Buy 

As per usual, we expect to find the best Apple BF deals at third-party retailers rather than Apple itself. Last year, we saw the Apple HomePod, Apple’s smart speaker, go for $199 at Best Buy — and we’re expecting discounts equal to or greater than last year’s savings. It’s unclear whether the HomePod Mini (which was just announced) will see any discounts this year.